Evolution and control of H5N1: A better understanding of the evolution and diversity of H5N1 flu virus and its host species in endemic areas could inform more efficient vaccination and control strategies
Watanabe Y, Ibrahim MS, Ikuta K.
EMBO Rep. 2013 Feb;14(2):117-22. doi: 10.1038/embor.2012.212. Epub 2013 Jan 11.
A readily readable paper on the state of H5N1 virus infection in poultry with particular attention given to Egypt.
“Unfortunately, it is unlikely that science will ever produce a clear answer as to when, where and how the next pandemic influenza virus will emerge.”
Yet another group of authors coming to the same conclusion.
Human infection with avian influenza A H6N1 virus: an epidemiological analysis.
Wei SH, Yang JR, Wu HS, Chang MC, Lin JS, Lin CY, Liu YL, Lo YC, Yang CH, Chuang JH, Lin MC, Chung WC, Liao CH, Lee MS, Huang WT, Chen PJ, Liu MT, Chang FY.
Lancet Respir Med. 2013 Dec;1(10):771-8. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(13)70221-2. Epub 2013 Nov 14.
A 20 year old woman with respiratory distress presented to a hospital in Taiwan. An unusual influenza virus subtype was isolated, H6N1 making it the first recorded case. Molecular analysis of the virus identified a G228S mutation in the hemagglutinin (H) surface protein which is generally considered to help hemagglutinin binding to human a2-6 linked sialic acid receptors, although it was not proven here. As a unique clade of H6N1 viruses with a G228S substitution of hemagglutinin have circulated persistently in poultry in Taiwan the case represents another example of a zoonosis, and probably a dead-end infection.
The article concludes with “Our report highlights the continuous need for preparedness for a pandemic of unpredictable and complex avian influenza.” This is an impossible conclusion. Extrapolation from a single point is not possible. Furthermore the “unpredictable and complex nature of avian influenza” has been highlighted before and our ability to predict the next pandemic has been found wanting.
Nonetheless, it represents an important case report.
